Increase success threshold for fee estimation to 95%
This provides more conservative estimates and reacts more quickly to a backlog. Unfortunately the unit test for fee estimation depends on the success threshold (and the decay) chosen; also modify the unit test for the new default success thresholds.
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@ -182,8 +182,8 @@ static const unsigned int MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 25;
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/** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 346 blocks or about 2.4 days */
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/** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 346 blocks or about 2.4 days */
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static const double DEFAULT_DECAY = .998;
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static const double DEFAULT_DECAY = .998;
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/** Require greater than 85% of X fee transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks for X to be big enough */
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/** Require greater than 95% of X fee transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks for X to be big enough */
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static const double MIN_SUCCESS_PCT = .85;
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static const double MIN_SUCCESS_PCT = .95;
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static const double UNLIKELY_PCT = .5;
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static const double UNLIKELY_PCT = .5;
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/** Require an avg of 1 tx in the combined fee bucket per block to have stat significance */
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/** Require an avg of 1 tx in the combined fee bucket per block to have stat significance */
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@ -83,11 +83,13 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
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block.clear();
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block.clear();
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if (blocknum == 30) {
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if (blocknum == 30) {
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// At this point we should need to combine 5 buckets to get enough data points
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// At this point we should need to combine 5 buckets to get enough data points
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// So estimateFee(1) should fail and estimateFee(2) should return somewhere around
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// So estimateFee(1,2,3) should fail and estimateFee(4) should return somewhere around
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// 8*baserate
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// 8*baserate. estimateFee(4) %'s are 100,100,100,100,90 = average 98%
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(1) == CFeeRate(0));
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(1) == CFeeRate(0));
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(2).GetFeePerK() < 8*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(2) == CFeeRate(0));
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(2).GetFeePerK() > 8*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(3) == CFeeRate(0));
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(4).GetFeePerK() < 8*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(4).GetFeePerK() > 8*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee);
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}
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}
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}
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}
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@ -96,9 +98,9 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
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// Highest feerate is 10*baseRate and gets in all blocks,
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// Highest feerate is 10*baseRate and gets in all blocks,
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// second highest feerate is 9*baseRate and gets in 9/10 blocks = 90%,
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// second highest feerate is 9*baseRate and gets in 9/10 blocks = 90%,
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// third highest feerate is 8*base rate, and gets in 8/10 blocks = 80%,
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// third highest feerate is 8*base rate, and gets in 8/10 blocks = 80%,
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// so estimateFee(1) should return 9*baseRate.
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// so estimateFee(1) should return 10*baseRate.
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// Third highest feerate has 90% chance of being included by 2 blocks,
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// Second highest feerate has 100% chance of being included by 2 blocks,
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// so estimateFee(2) should return 8*baseRate etc...
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// so estimateFee(2) should return 9*baseRate etc...
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for (int i = 1; i < 10;i++) {
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for (int i = 1; i < 10;i++) {
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origFeeEst.push_back(mpool.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK());
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origFeeEst.push_back(mpool.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK());
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origPriEst.push_back(mpool.estimatePriority(i));
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origPriEst.push_back(mpool.estimatePriority(i));
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@ -106,10 +108,11 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
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BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] <= origFeeEst[i-2]);
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BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] <= origFeeEst[i-2]);
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BOOST_CHECK(origPriEst[i-1] <= origPriEst[i-2]);
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BOOST_CHECK(origPriEst[i-1] <= origPriEst[i-2]);
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}
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}
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BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] < (10-i)*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee);
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int mult = 11-i;
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BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] > (10-i)*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] < mult*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(origPriEst[i-1] < pow(10,10-i) * basepri + deltaPri);
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BOOST_CHECK(origFeeEst[i-1] > mult*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(origPriEst[i-1] > pow(10,10-i) * basepri - deltaPri);
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BOOST_CHECK(origPriEst[i-1] < pow(10,mult) * basepri + deltaPri);
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BOOST_CHECK(origPriEst[i-1] > pow(10,mult) * basepri - deltaPri);
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}
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}
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// Mine 50 more blocks with no transactions happening, estimates shouldn't change
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// Mine 50 more blocks with no transactions happening, estimates shouldn't change
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@ -140,8 +143,8 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
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}
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}
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for (int i = 1; i < 10;i++) {
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for (int i = 1; i < 10;i++) {
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK() > origFeeEst[i-1] - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(i) == CFeeRate(0) || mpool.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK() > origFeeEst[i-1] - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimatePriority(i) > origPriEst[i-1] - deltaPri);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimatePriority(i) == -1 || mpool.estimatePriority(i) > origPriEst[i-1] - deltaPri);
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}
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}
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// Mine all those transactions
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// Mine all those transactions
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@ -161,9 +164,9 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimatePriority(i) > origPriEst[i-1] - deltaPri);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimatePriority(i) > origPriEst[i-1] - deltaPri);
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}
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}
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// Mine 100 more blocks where everything is mined every block
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// Mine 200 more blocks where everything is mined every block
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// Estimates should be below original estimates (not possible for last estimate)
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// Estimates should be below original estimates
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while (blocknum < 365) {
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while (blocknum < 465) {
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for (int j = 0; j < 10; j++) { // For each fee/pri multiple
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for (int j = 0; j < 10; j++) { // For each fee/pri multiple
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for (int k = 0; k < 5; k++) { // add 4 fee txs for every priority tx
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for (int k = 0; k < 5; k++) { // add 4 fee txs for every priority tx
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tx.vin[0].prevout.n = 10000*blocknum+100*j+k;
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tx.vin[0].prevout.n = 10000*blocknum+100*j+k;
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@ -177,7 +180,7 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates)
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mpool.removeForBlock(block, ++blocknum, dummyConflicted);
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mpool.removeForBlock(block, ++blocknum, dummyConflicted);
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block.clear();
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block.clear();
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}
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}
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for (int i = 1; i < 9; i++) {
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for (int i = 1; i < 10; i++) {
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK() < origFeeEst[i-1] - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK() < origFeeEst[i-1] - deltaFee);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimatePriority(i) < origPriEst[i-1] - deltaPri);
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BOOST_CHECK(mpool.estimatePriority(i) < origPriEst[i-1] - deltaPri);
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}
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}
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